Artigo: Trends in extreme rainfall and hydrogeometeorological disasters in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: a review

This work presents an analysis of the observed trends in extreme precipitation events in the Paraná River basin (PRB) from 1977 to 2016 (40 yr) based on daily records from 853 stations. The Mann–Kendall test and inverse-distance-weighted interpolation were applied to annual and seasonal precipitation and also for four extreme precipitation indices. The results show that the negative trends (significance at 95% confidence level) in annual and seasonal series are mainly located in the northern and northeastern parts of the basin. In contrast, except in the autumn season, positive trends were concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin, most notably for annual and summer precipitation. The spatial distributions of the indices of annual maximum 5-day precipitation and number of rainstorms indicate that significant positive trends are mostly located in the south-southeast part of the basin and that significant negative trends are mostly located in the north-northeast part. The index of the annual number of dry days shows that 88% of significant trends are positive and that most of these are located in the northern region of the PRB, which is a region with a high number of consecutive dry days (.90). The simple daily intensity index showed the highest number of stations (263) with mostly positive significant trends

 Autores: Marengo, J.A., Alves, L.M., Ambrizzi, T., Young, A., Barreto, N.J.C. and Ramos, A.M. (2020)

Link de acesso: https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nyas.14307